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andrew | 5th Mar 2007, 11:09 PM | 經濟
The Forecast for the Forecasters Is Dismal - New York Times

The Economist reported that in March 2001 — the month the last recession began — 95 percent of American economists believed that there wouldn’t be a recession. In February 2001, the 35 professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia collectively predicted growth at an annual rate of 2.2 percent for the second quarter of 2001 and 3.3 percent for the third quarter. It’s as if meteorologists stood outside as the storm clouds approached and informed television viewers that endless sunshine was ahead.

有趣。經濟學者向來都是失敗的預言家,上次 美國 recession 竟有 95%的經濟學家猜不中。令我想起不止一次聽人投訴說:經濟學用這般嚴謹的數學,卻只有這般低的預言能力。


[1]

以我對經濟學的認知, 經濟學從來都只是用來對過去發生的事情和現象作出合理的解釋, 而不是對未來作出預知.


[引用] | 作者 SK1018 | 6th Mar 2007 9:29 AM | [舉報垃圾留言]

[2]

sk108,
預測力和解釋力是一體兩面的。


[引用] | 作者 andrew | 6th Mar 2007 10:08 PM | [舉報垃圾留言]